When food prices fall: A mixed feeling

Across Nigerian markets in late 2025, many staple food prices have softened — a 50kg bag of rice, once trading above ₦100,000, now exchanges hands nearer to just over half that price, and beans and garri have also eased significantly from their peaks. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, average prices of rice, beans, garri, and other essentials recorded year-on-year declines by late 2025, with beans dropping over 37% and garri nearly 30% in October compared to a year earlier. Consumers feel this relief keenly. When a mother in Lagos can stretch her food budget a little further, or a young professional no longer dreads weekly market runs, that’s a real improvement in everyday life. After years of punishing food inflation and shrinking purchasing power — fuelled by exchange rate pressures and rising transport costs — any dip in prices feels like a breath of fresh air for households still grappling with the rising cost of living. But the story behind these numbers is more complicated than a simple win for all Nigerians.

The Other Side of the Market: Farmers in the Pain Zone

That relief for consumers masks a stark reality for the people who grow our food. I’ve spoken to farmers who, after investing heavily in seeds, fertiliser, land preparation and logistics, saw their harvests reach markets only to find prices collapsing. This isn’t just anecdote — market surveys consistently show volatile price swings, where some staples ease while others spike or vary widely by location. One farmer friend who ventured into this season’s cowpea crop worked tirelessly and even took a loan, only to return home with earnings that didn’t cover his input costs. He asked me, quietly, “Should I even farm next season?” That question resonates far beyond his farm, because when producers cannot recover costs or earn a margin, they rethink farming altogether. This isn’t just about low prices; it’s about low profitability coupled with persistent high costs of production and weak off-take systems. If policy emphasises short-term price relief without stabilising market conditions for farmers, the result is predictable: farmers lose hope, production contracts, and food security weakens. With Nigeria still a net importer of several staples and food insecurity rising as a policy concern, this is a trajectory that demands urgent policy attention.

The Policy Gaps Behind Price Swings

The disconnect between falling market prices and fragile farm economics reveals deeper policy issues. Nigeria’s agricultural sector still absorbs shocks with little buffer: input costs remain high, credit is inaccessible or prohibitively expensive, and infrastructure gaps — from storage to transport — amplify losses. Abrupt shifts in trade and border policy can flood markets with cheap imports when domestic production gains momentum, only to leave local producers with unsold stock and debts. There is nothing sustainable about a system that swings between feast and famine. Nor do farmers have price stabilisation tools, systematic off-take agreements, or reliable aggregation and storage that protect producers from riding price roller-coasters. Without these safeguards, even harvest surpluses can translate into losses for those who toil in the fields. The implications extend beyond rural Nigeria: declining farmer incomes threaten future planting decisions, food availability, and ultimately national food security. A food price drop that erodes production incentives risks storing up greater hardship down the road — higher import bills, more dependence on foreign supplies, and renewed vulnerability to global price shocks.

Toward Fairer, Stable Food Markets for All

Nigeria’s priority should not simply be “cheaper food,” but stable, fair pricing that balances consumers’ needs with farmers’ sustainability. Achieving this requires predictable trade and border policies that do not undermine domestic production, concerted efforts to cut input costs and unlock affordable credit, and investments in storage, aggregation, and off-take frameworks that smooth seasonal gluts. Price stabilisation instruments — whether buffer stocks, futures markets, or targeted subsidies — can reduce volatility and provide some predictability to both sellers and buyers. At the same time, longer-term structural issues — insecurity in food-producing regions, climate risks that affect yields, and fragmented supply chains — must be squarely addressed if agriculture is to thrive. Nigeria’s food security isn’t just an economic issue; it’s a social and political imperative that touches every household. A system that ensures food affordability while preserving farming viability will not only keep plates full today, but also safeguard our agricultural future. Anything less, and the fleeting joy of cheaper food risks giving way to the anguish of scarcity.