Feeding Nigeria’s growing population: Sustainable solutions for food security and economic development

Nigeria stands at a critical crossroads. With a population projected to surpass 400 million by 2050, the question is no longer whether we can feed ourselves—it is how we will do so sustainably. Every day, millions of Nigerians face rising food prices, supply chain disruptions, and the looming threat of climate change, all while the country’s vast agricultural potential remains largely untapped.

The challenge is daunting, but so is the opportunity. By embracing innovative farming techniques, regenerative agriculture, value chain optimisation, and strategic policy reforms, Nigeria can turn its food insecurity crisis into an engine for economic growth, job creation, and global competitiveness. It is time to move beyond rhetoric and embrace actionable, scalable, and sustainable solutions that will not only feed today’s Nigeria but also secure a food-resilient future for generations to come.

The path to food security is not a solo journey—it requires farmers, policymakers, investors, and consumers working together to build a resilient, productive, and sustainable food system.

The time to act is now. Will Nigeria rise to the challenge?

Read also: Fostering collaboration: A crucial nexus for Nigeria’s food security

State of Nigeria’s agricultural sector

Heretofore, Nigeria’s agricultural sector is broadly divided into four key activity sectors – crop production, fishing, livestock, and forestry. Crop production has remained the largest segment, accounting for close to 90 percent of the sector’s total output. This is followed by livestock, fishing, and forestry at 5.91 percent, 1.97 percent, and 1.04 percent, respectively. Agriculture remains the largest sector in Nigeria, contributing an average of 26 percent over the past five years (2021-2025). In addition, the sector employs more than 40 percent of the country’s labour force, a feat which ranks it as the largest employer of labour in the country.

In 2024, Nigeria’s agricultural sector demonstrated modest growth, underscoring its pivotal role in the nation’s economy. In the first quarter, the sector grew by 0.18 percent, rebounding from a contraction of -0.90 percent in the same period of 2023. Crop production remained a significant contributor, accounting for approximately 19.27 percent of the overall GDP. By the fourth quarter, the sector’s growth rate reached 1.76 percent, reflecting a steady, albeit slow, expansion. Despite these gains, agriculture’s share of real GDP declined to 25.59 percent in Q4 2024, down from 26.11 percent in Q4 2023, highlighting the sector’s waning influence amid a service-driven economy.

Key insights and prospects

Nigeria’s agricultural sector remains a crucial pillar of the economy, contributing approximately 26 percent to the GDP in 2024. The sector continues to be the largest employer, absorbing more than 34 percent of the labour force. However, the sector faces persistent challenges that threaten its sustainability and growth.

Smallholder farmers (SHFs) dominate the industry, accounting for over 80 percent of the farming population and producing 90 percent of Nigeria’s agricultural output. Despite their significance, limited mechanisation remains a major bottleneck. With a tractor density of just 1.5 hp per hectare—far below the FAO’s recommended threshold—low productivity continues to hinder the sector’s full potential.

Trade data reveals Nigeria’s deepening agricultural trade deficit, which widened by ₦3.4 billion in 2024. The country’s cumulative agricultural imports stood at ₦1.1 billion, reflecting an overreliance on food imports and the urgent need to boost local production.

Investment in the sector remains insufficient, with only ₦110 billion allocated for agricultural research and development (R&D). This underfunding stifles innovation and mechanisation, limiting Nigeria’s ability to enhance food security and export competitiveness. Additionally, the agriculture budget accounts for only 2 percent of the total 2024 budget—far below the 10 percent commitment specified in the Maputo Declaration.

These figures highlight the pressing need for increased investment in mechanisation, research, and policy reforms. Addressing these gaps is essential for enhancing productivity, reducing import dependency, and ensuring long-term food security for Nigeria’s growing population.

Trade imbalances further highlight the sector’s struggles. Between 2016 and 2019, Nigeria’s agricultural imports totalled N3.35 trillion—four times higher than exports—while the agricultural trade deficit widened to N689.7 billion in 2019. Limited investment in research and development (R&D) compounds these issues, with just N40 billion allocated in 2019. Additionally, agriculture’s budget share in 2020 was only 1.8 percent, well below the 10 percent commitment in the Maputo Declaration.

Meanwhile, Nigerians spent N22.8 trillion on food in 2019, representing over half (56.7%) of total household expenditure, indicating high food costs and dependency on imports. Addressing these challenges through mechanisation, policy support, and investment is crucial for sustainable growth in Nigeria’s agricultural sector.

Read also: NALDA launches ambitious agric projects to boost food security

The growing population and its implications

Nigeria’s population is expected to surpass 250 million by 2050, presenting both opportunities and challenges for food security. With a rapidly expanding populace, the demand for food will rise exponentially, placing immense pressure on natural resources, arable land, and water availability. Urbanisation is further straining infrastructure, increasing the need for efficient food production and distribution systems. Without sustainable solutions, the risk of recurrent food crises looms large, threatening national stability and economic growth.

Current state of food security in Nigeria

Food insecurity remains a significant challenge. In 2019, Nigerians spent ₦22.8 trillion on food, accounting for over 56 per cent of total household expenditures. Rising food costs have exacerbated economic hardships, especially for low-income households. Nigeria’s agricultural trade deficit, which stood at ₦689.7 billion in 2019, reflects an overreliance on imports to meet domestic demand. Low productivity persists due to outdated farming practices, poor mechanisation (0936* hp per hectare), and inadequate government support, leaving the country vulnerable to supply shocks.

The urgent need for sustainable solutions

To secure Nigeria’s food future, strategic investments and policy reforms are crucial:

· Agricultural technology & mechanisation: Modernising farming practices to boost productivity and efficiency.

· Strengthening local production & reducing imports: Implementing policies that support local farmers and agribusinesses to reduce dependency on foreign food supplies.

· Public-private sector collaboration: Encouraging investments in agro-processing, infrastructure, and value chains.

· Climate-resilient practices: Promoting drought-resistant crops, irrigation systems, and sustainable land management to mitigate climate risks.

By addressing these challenges, Nigeria can build a resilient and self-sufficient agricultural sector capable of feeding its growing population sustainably.

Read also: How to move Nigeria from food scarcity to security

A call to action

Nigeria’s food security future hinges on strategic, sustainable interventions. Urgent action is needed from all stakeholders—government, private sector, and farmers—to invest in modern agriculture, improve infrastructure, and adopt climate-smart practices. Strengthening local food production and reducing import dependency are critical to economic resilience. Policymakers must prioritise agriculture through increased funding, research, and supportive policies. The public must advocate for food self-sufficiency initiatives to ensure a secure and prosperous future. By working together, Nigeria can overcome its food challenges and build a resilient agricultural sector capable of feeding its growing population sustainably. The time to act is now.